Key Points:
- Oil prices rise for the fifth straight day, longest streak since January.
- US-Iran talks stalled, threatening Persian Gulf oil flows.
- Trump’s social media posts and blockade hinder negotiations.
- Strait of Hormuz remains largely frozen, impacting supply.
Oil prices rose for a fifth consecutive day, marking their longest streak of gains since January. This increase comes as uncertainty around talks between the U.S. and Iran threatens to further delay oil flows from the Persian Gulf.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, climbed above $106 a barrel, heading for an approximate 18% weekly gain. West Texas Intermediate traded near $97. According to two U.S. officials familiar with the situation, President Donald Trump’s posts on Truth Social, along with his decision to continue a naval blockade of Iranian ports, have hurt negotiations facilitated by mediators like Pakistan.
The conflict has shaken energy markets since it began in late February. The near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has drastically cut flows from major oil and gas producers in the Persian Gulf. New worries about stalled peace talks, increasingly strong language, and growing military threats are adding to the geopolitical premium in oil prices.
“The longer this continues, the more it becomes clear that the disruptive effects of this conflict are going to reverberate for months, if not longer,” said Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She added that the disruption might be so undeniable that market prices will eventually catch up with the reality of limited supply.
Futures rose during Thursday’s session after Trump posted on social media that he had ordered the U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill” boats laying mines in the strait. At the same time, American forces boarded a supertanker carrying Iranian oil in the Indian Ocean, as the navy increased its blockade of Iran’s shipping.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked, with only occasional movements of Iranian-linked vessels breaking the quiet. Efforts to restart talks between Washington and Tehran are still stuck on several other key issues. These include Iran’s nuclear capabilities and Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Trump announced in a social media post that the ceasefire in Lebanon has been extended by three weeks.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts, including Daan Struyven, wrote in an April 23 note that crude oil production in the Persian Gulf would take “a few months” to mostly recover, assuming a full reopening of Hormuz and no new attacks. The bank estimates that output could be cut by about 14.5 million barrels a day, or more than 50%, in April.
