Key points
- China has not purchased any US soybeans at the start of the export season, a first since at least the 1990s.
- This marks a revival of using agriculture as leverage in trade negotiations with the US.
- China possesses ample soybean stockpiles from other sources, reducing the urgency for US imports.
- US soybean farmers, a key voting bloc for President Trump, are facing price drops due to the lack of Chinese demand.
For the first time since at least the 1990s, China’s strategic decision to halt all US soybean imports at the beginning of the export season signals a renewed use of agricultural commodities as leverage in its ongoing trade dispute with the United States. This move, by the world’s largest soybean importer, carries significant weight in global markets and underscores the fragility of the current truce between the two economic superpowers.
Data from the US Department of Agriculture confirms the absence of any Chinese soybean purchases as of September 11th, a stark contrast to last year when US soybeans constituted one-fifth of China’s imports, valued at over $12 billion.
China’s strategic stockpile of soybeans, coupled with readily available supplies from Brazil, gives Beijing the patience to wait for favorable trade terms. This calculated approach mirrors tactics employed during the previous trade war under the Trump administration. The timing is significant, coinciding with heightened tensions surrounding restrictions on semiconductors and rare earths, and further underscored by China’s recent anti-monopoly investigation into Nvidia.
Analysts at Trivium China suggest that this soybean strategy is part of a broader, long-term game plan, influenced not only by existing tariffs but also by the uncertainty surrounding their future.
The impact on American soybean farmers is severe. Facing near record-low prices and bumper harvests, they’ve warned of a looming crisis, urging the Trump administration to secure a trade deal that eliminates tariffs. Currently, US soybeans entering China face duties exceeding 20%.
While Chinese crushers and feed producers have secured sufficient supplies from other nations, potentially through the first quarter of 2026, the absence of US soybeans is a significant blow to American farmers, a key demographic for President Trump.
President Xi Jinping’s upcoming conversation with President Trump will likely place agriculture, particularly the soybean trade, at the forefront of the agenda. While China has shown small gestures of de-escalation, including resuming US oil purchases and dropping an antitrust probe into Google’s Android, the larger issues of soybean trade and the broader agricultural sector remain critical components of any potential trade agreement.
Experts suggest that while ambitious targets may be replaced with more realistic commitments, the path to a comprehensive agreement remains a challenging one. The longer China avoids US soybeans, the more costly it becomes, even with the readily available alternatives.
