Key Points
- New Street Research is bullish on the robotaxi market, with Tesla and Waymo leading the way.
- The firm has a $600 price target on Tesla, citing its cost and data advantages.
- Tesla has accumulated over 6 billion miles of real-world FSD data, far more than its rivals.
- The analyst predicts robotaxi services could generate over $40 billion in revenue for Tesla by 2030.
The global robotaxi market is about to hit a major turning point, and one Wall Street firm believes Tesla is in the driver’s seat. New Street Research reports that key players such as Tesla and Waymo are set to expand their commercial operations in 2026, and it sees Tesla as the best positioned to lead the charge.
Analyst Peter Vogel reiterated a “Buy” rating on Tesla’s stock with a $600 price target, about 40% above its current price. He argues that Tesla has three major advantages over its rivals: lower costs, a flexible supply model, and a massive existing fleet of cars already on the road.
Vogel believes Tesla’s “vision-only” approach to self-driving, combined with its vertical integration, gives it a huge cost advantage. He estimates Tesla’s cost per mile could eventually fall to about $0.50, about 40% lower than what he believes Waymo can achieve.
But the real game-changer, according to Vogel, is Tesla’s ability to use customer-owned vehicles to meet demand.
Instead of buying and maintaining a massive fleet of its own cars, Tesla can tap into the millions of FSD-enabled vehicles already on the road. This would allow the company to scale up its robotaxi service much faster and with far less upfront investment than its competitors.
The data advantage is also huge. Tesla already has over three million FSD-enabled cars generating real-world data across billions of miles. By comparison, Waymo has only accumulated about 100 million miles in tightly controlled, “geofenced” areas.
Vogel identifies several major catalysts for Tesla in 2026, including the removal of safety drivers, progress toward fully autonomous self-driving, and the start of “Cybercab” production. He predicts that robotaxi services could generate over $40 billion in revenue for Tesla by 2030.
