Key Points:
- The EU replaced its 100% combustion ban with a 90% emissions cut target for 2035.
- Analysts predict electric vehicles will likely account for 85% of sales by 2035.
- If automakers prioritize hybrids, the EV market share could fall to 50%.
- The policy change aims to save the auto industry €2.1 billion for innovation.
The European Union is stepping back from its plan to completely ban the sale of new combustion-engine cars by 2035. Under heavy pressure from major automakers, the European Commission proposed a new target in December. Instead of hitting zero emissions, the new rule aims for a 90% cut in CO2 emissions compared to 2021 levels. This change opens the door for gas and diesel engines to stay on the road longer than originally planned.
According to a new report by the clean transport group Transport & Environment (T&E), this policy shift means electric vehicles (EVs) will likely make up about 85% of new car sales in the EU by 2035.
However, T&E warns that this number isn’t guaranteed. Depending on how carmakers react, the share of EVs could drop as low as 50%. The remaining market would consist of highly efficient gas cars or plug-in hybrids.
T&E criticized the move, calling it the EU’s biggest retreat from green policies in years. They argue that allowing the sale of high-polluting vehicles helps traditional carmakers delay the inevitable switch to battery power.
Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturers are speeding ahead with fully electric models, potentially leaving European companies behind in the global tech race.
The European Commission defends the change, stating it will save vehicle makers around €2.1 billion over three years. Officials hope companies will use these savings to invest in innovation and develop better electric models.
However, the environmental cost is significant. T&E calculates that delaying the full transition will result in car emissions being 10% higher between 2025 and 2050 compared to the original, stricter rules. The group is also worried that politicians in the European Parliament could water down the legislation even further during upcoming debates.
For now, the future of European roads looks mostly electric, but not entirely emission-free.
