Key Points:
- Oil prices remained stable, with Brent trading below $68.
- The US and Iran will resume high-stakes negotiations on Tuesday.
- President Trump increased pressure by suggesting “regime change” for Iran.
- OPEC+ members are considering an oil production increase for April.
Oil markets remained steady at the start of the week as traders paused to assess global risks. Prices showed little movement after falling for two consecutive weeks. Investors are waiting to see the outcome of diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran, which resume on Tuesday in Geneva.
Brent crude traded just under $68 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate sat near $63. The market mood is tense following comments from U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday. He stated that “regime change” would be the best outcome for Iran, a remark that significantly increased pressure right before negotiations began.
Despite the recent dip, oil prices are still up about 10% this year. The market fears that conflict in the Middle East could disrupt supplies from a region that pumps one-third of the world’s crude. However, prices cooled off recently as the threat of an immediate military strike faded, and the International Energy Agency predicted lower global demand for fuel.
Geneva will be a busy diplomatic hub this week. In addition to the Iran discussions, U.S.-led talks to end the war in Ukraine also start on Tuesday. Expectations remain low for a quick end to the four-year conflict. Fighting continues on the ground, with drone strikes damaging fuel tanks and the Taman seaport on the Black Sea coast over the weekend.
Supply decisions are also looming. Some members of the OPEC+ oil cartel believe the market can handle more oil. They see room to increase production starting in April, arguing that fears of a global surplus are exaggerated.
The group meets on March 1 to make a final decision. Insiders say their choice will depend heavily on whether Trump strikes a nuclear deal with Iran or launches military action.
