Key Points
- The popular narrative that AI is the sole engine of the U.S. economy is overstated.
- Consumer spending was the most crucial driver of GDP growth in 2025, with AI investment coming in second.
- The impact of AI on GDP is smaller than it appears because much of the high-tech equipment is imported.
- Even without the AI boom, the U.S. economy would have still posted decent growth in 2025.
The popular story on Wall Street is that the artificial intelligence boom is the only thing keeping the U.S. economy afloat. But a closer look at the numbers shows that’s not quite true. While AI investment is certainly a big deal, the real hero of the 2025 economy was, as it usually is, the American consumer.
A new report from MRB Partners found that consumption was the most important driver of U.S. GDP growth last year, with AI-related capital spending coming in second. “AI is an important part of the growth story, but it’s not the only part,” the report’s author said. “It’s the U.S. consumer that continues to drive the expansion.”
One reason AI’s impact on GDP might be overstated is that much of the high-tech equipment used to build data centers is imported. Since imports are subtracted from the GDP calculation, the net contribution of AI investment is smaller than it might appear at first glance.
When you adjust for these imports, the report found that AI-related investments contributed about 20-25% of real GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025. “Without an A.I. boom, there would have certainly been less GDP growth last year, but there would also be fewer imports, so that overall real growth would still have been decent,” the report said.
Other analysts agree. Bespoke Investment Group found that in the second and third quarters of 2025, categories linked to AI spending accounted for just 15% of quarterly GDP growth.
Looking ahead, analysts expect resilient consumer spending to continue in 2026, supported by government fiscal policy and potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. So while the AI boom is undeniably a powerful force, it’s not the only game in town. The good old American shopper is still the one in the driver’s seat.
