Key Points
- Brazil’s soybean exports are set to hit a new record this year.
- The surge is driven by massive demand from China, which is avoiding U.S. soybeans due to tariffs.
- Brazil’s year-to-date exports have already surpassed the full-year totals for 2023 and 2024.
- China is now buying a historically high 80% of all soybeans exported from Brazil.
Brazil is on track to smash its own record for soybean exports this year, thanks to a massive harvest and, most importantly, the ongoing trade war between the United States and China. With Chinese buyers largely shunning U.S. soybeans, they have turned to Brazil to fill the gap, driving the South American country’s exports to new heights.
By the end of October, Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to hit 102.2 million tons, already surpassing the full-year totals for both 2023 and 2024. The country is now on pace to export a staggering 110 million tons for the entire year.
“China continues to be the main destination and driver for Brazilian soy shipments,” said the Brazilian grain exporters’ group, Anec.
The numbers are striking. In September, a massive 93% of Brazil’s soybean exports went to China. For the year, China has bought nearly 80% of all soybeans exported from Brazil, a historically high share.
This is a direct consequence of the U.S.-China trade dispute. With high tariffs making American soybeans expensive, Chinese importers have been forced to rely almost entirely on Brazil to meet their massive demand.
For Brazilian farmers, it’s a bonanza. They’ve not only harvested a record crop but are also benefiting from the absence of their biggest competitor in their most important market.
