Key Points
- China insists on mutual respect and peaceful co-existence with the U.S. despite potential tensions under Donald Trump’s presidency.
- Trump’s proposed tariffs and the end of China’s most-favored-nation status could trigger a new trade war, exacerbating China’s economic challenges.
- China may deepen economic and political ties with Russia and other countries to counteract potential pressures from the U.S.
- Trump’s approach to Taiwan is expected to shift, potentially lowering U.S. support for the island compared to the Biden administration’s stance.
As Donald Trump nears victory in the U.S. presidential election, China has expressed its intention to work with the U.S. based on mutual respect. However, Beijing strategists are preparing for intensified superpower rivalry. Despite concerns over the return of Trump’s combative approach to foreign policy, China remains committed to peaceful co-existence and win-win cooperation in its relations with the U.S.
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning assured the public that China’s policy toward the U.S. remains unchanged, emphasizing mutual respect as the foundation of bilateral ties. However, Chinese strategists anticipate a more challenging period ahead, particularly in light of Donald Trump’s potential re-imposition of harsh tariffs and a shift in his foreign policy stance.
According to Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, while Trump’s victory is not China’s preferred outcome, Beijing had expected a close race and is prepared for the challenges it brings.
China’s leadership is expected to maintain a cordial public relationship with Donald Trump while strategically focusing on projecting China’s strength and expanding its global influence. However, Da Wei, director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, warned that Trump’s unpredictability could significantly disrupt Sino-U.S. relations.
The key concern is trade, with Trump proposing tariffs of over 60% on Chinese imports and revoking China’s most-favored-nation status. Such moves could reignite a trade war and destabilize China’s economy, which is already grappling with internal challenges.
In response, China is likely to accelerate its push for technological and economic self-sufficiency while strengthening ties with countries like Russia to mitigate the impact of a potential trade war. Additionally, China may shift its focus to expanding influence in the Global South, Europe, and Northeast Asia, especially if Donald Trump follows an isolationist, anti-globalist foreign policy. This could create power vacuums in international relations that China could fill.
Despite the potential challenges, analysts suggest that China is preparing for these eventualities, looking to safeguard its domestic economy while exploring new global alliances.
