Key Points
- China is expected to increase its imports of Brazilian soybeans in the first half of 2026.
- A record harvest in Brazil and competitive prices are driving the deals.
- This could hurt demand for U.S. soybeans when their export season begins in September.
- China’s 13% tariff on U.S. soybeans makes them much more expensive for private buyers than Brazilian supplies.
China is set to buy a lot more soybeans from Brazil in the first half of 2026, as a record-breaking harvest in South America is pushing prices down and making Brazilian beans a much more attractive option than those from the United States.
Private soybean processors in China are already locking in deals for Brazilian soybeans to be shipped starting in February. This could be bad news for U.S. farmers, as it will likely cut into the demand for their own crops when the North American export season kicks off in September.
While China has made some “goodwill” purchases of U.S. soybeans in recent months to ease trade tensions, those have been made by state-owned companies. Private traders have been sitting on the sidelines because of the 13% tariff that China has on U.S. soybeans, which makes them much more expensive than Brazilian supplies, which face only a 3% duty.
“China’s current purchase volumes of U.S. soybeans are limited, sufficient only to maintain a positive political atmosphere,” said one political risk consultant.
The price difference is significant. At current levels, China would have paid up to $108 million more for the 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans it recently bought than it would have for the same amount of Brazilian beans.
With Brazil expecting a record harvest of over 182 million tons, prices are likely to fall even further, making Brazilian soybeans an even more attractive option for Chinese buyers. Some traders are predicting that the price difference between Brazilian and U.S. soybeans could widen to as much as a dollar a bushel.
For now, it seems that unless the Chinese government orders its companies to buy American, or unless the U.S. and China can reach a new trade deal that lowers the tariffs, Brazil is set to further cement its position as the king of the Chinese soybean market.
