Key Points:
- Citigroup cut Bitcoin and Ethereum 12-month price forecasts.
- Slow US crypto legislation progress is the main reason for the cuts.
- Bitcoin’s forecast dropped to $112,000, Ethereum’s to $3,175.
- Political disagreements and election outcomes impact bill passage chances.
Citigroup has lowered its 12-month price predictions for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. The bank pointed to slow progress in US cryptocurrency laws, which means less chance for new regulations that could boost demand for crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and wider adoption by big financial firms.
A key piece of US crypto legislation, the “Clarity Act,” has stalled in the Senate. Its chances of passing are getting slimmer due to disagreements on stablecoin rules and a short window for approval in 2026.
As a result, the Wall Street brokerage dropped its 12-month Bitcoin price forecast from $143,000 to $112,000. Its Ethereum estimate also fell from $4,304 to $3,175.
“Regulatory catalysts will drive further adoption and flows but the window of opportunity for U.S. legislation this year is narrowing,” explained Citi strategist Alex Saunders in a Monday note.
Citi also explored different market scenarios. In a tough economic period (recession), Bitcoin could fall to $58,000 and Ethereum to $1,198. However, if strong investor demand drives a bull market, Bitcoin could climb to $165,000 and Ethereum to $4,488. On Tuesday, Bitcoin was trading around $74,298.11 and Ethereum around $2345.51.
“ETH will be especially sensitive to user activity metrics, which have been weak recently, but stablecoin and tokenization trends may increase interest and usage,” Citi added.
The likelihood of a crypto bill passing could decrease even further if Democrats gain more seats in the US Congress during the November mid-term elections. Democratic lawmakers are more split on how to update federal rules for cryptocurrencies. To pass, the bill needs support from at least seven Senate Democrats.
Some Democrats are pushing for language that would stop elected officials from profiting from crypto ventures. This issue has gained attention due amid scrutiny of the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial project. Analysts suggest this could make it less likely for US President Donald Trump to sign the bill into law.
“Bitcoin is likely to range-trade anticipating legislative news flow with (about) $70,000 an important level representing the pre-U.S. election price,” Citi stated. Other lawmakers have also called for the bill to include stricter rules against money laundering.
