Key Points
- Mizuho has identified six key themes for the fintech, payments, and crypto sector in 2026.
- Lower interest rates are expected to provide broad relief across the industry.
- The crypto market is likely to see a divergence, with stablecoins dominating real-world use. Prediction markets are emerging as a new growth engine.
- Consumer lending is set for a comeback, and legacy processors are seen as undervalued.
The world of fintech, payments, and cryptocurrency is heading into 2026 with a lot of momentum and a few big question marks. According to a new report from Mizuho, the sector is facing “major political, macro, and product catalysts” that will shape its future. The firm has identified six key themes for investors to watch this year.
First up is the impact of lower interest rates. Mizuho believes that a more dovish Federal Reserve will provide “broad relief” across the industry, helping everyone from payment processors to “buy now, pay later” (BNPL) firms.
Second, the crypto market is expected to see a “divergence.” As regulatory clarity improves, Mizuho predicts that stablecoins pegged to the U.S. dollar will “increasingly dominate real-world usage.” At the same time, more volatile cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin will continue on their own path.
The third theme is the rise of prediction markets. These platforms, which allow users to bet on the outcome of real-world events, are “emerging as a meaningful growth engine,” with Robinhood (HOOD) taking an early lead.
Fourth, consumer lending is set for a comeback. Mizuho sees “renewed borrowing demand” and stabilizing default rates as a major tailwind for fintech lenders.
The fifth theme is a new appreciation for “legacy” payment processors. The firm points to companies like Global Payments (GPN) as “unloved” names with strong fundamentals that could be poised for a rebound.
Finally, Mizuho is predicting an “IT services renaissance.” As tech spending picks up, companies that serve the financial industry are expected to benefit.
Of course, there are risks as well. The report highlights the potential for volatility from President Trump’s proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates. However, Mizuho notes that this could actually benefit BNPL players as consumers shift away from traditional credit.
