The US government is gearing up for a major shift in auto emissions standards that could propel electric vehicles (EVs) to the forefront of the American automotive landscape. According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), automakers would ensure that approximately two-thirds of all new cars sold in the United States are electric vehicles by 2032.
This bold move seeks to accelerate the adoption of EVs, with estimates suggesting that achieving this market share would be delayed until after 2035 without such stringent mandates, as analyzed by Moody’s industry expert Matthias Heck. While the EPA’s goals are attainable, the transition will be without its challenges, requiring substantial investments. However, it’s worth noting that the proposal is currently developing and could undergo changes before finalization. Over the coming decade, significant transformations are anticipated, spanning charging infrastructure enhancements to EV technology advancements. As battery tech improves and costs decline, consumer attraction towards EVs is expected to grow. Government incentives like those in the new Inflation Reduction Act are also set to fuel this transition.
A critical shift will be cost parity, making electric vehicles equally affordable or cheaper than their gas counterparts. Moreover, driving ranges will extend, fast-charging infrastructure will become more accessible, and operating costs will plummet, rendering EVs an appealing option for cost-conscious consumers. Predictions from Moody’s suggest forthcoming EV batteries will offer 30% greater range and 30% faster recharging. The transition should be smoother with bolstered charging networks and a more comprehensive range of EV models.
Electric vehicle equivalents exist for roughly 40% of gas vehicle models available in the US. By 2026, this figure is expected to reach 75%, with an anticipated market share of 27%. California’s more aggressive stance, aiming to allow only electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales by 2035, is poised to influence the national market. California’s proactive approach could accelerate the two-thirds EV market share milestone. Although not guaranteed, experts find the goal feasible. The growing participation of automakers in the electric vehicle sector and consumer brand loyalty could facilitate the shift. Toyota, for instance, is planning more EV models, as are Honda and General Motors, with the latter pledging a complete transition to electric passenger vehicles by 2035.
The road ahead is not without challenges, as the industry group Alliance for Automotive Innovation acknowledged, urging stakeholders’ cooperation for this monumental transformation. The automotive landscape is poised for a seismic shift as the momentum behind electric vehicles gains traction, aligning economic viability with environmental responsibility.
