Key points
- Projected seasonal retail hiring to fall below 500,000, the lowest since 2009. An 8% decrease compared to last year’s seasonal hiring numbers.
- Major retailers, including Target, Macy’s, and Burlington Stores, haven’t announced their seasonal hiring plans.
- This subdued hiring reflects a broader economic slowdown and cautious consumer spending.
- Consumers face pressures from inflation, tariffs, and high credit card debt, which impact their holiday spending.
The upcoming holiday shopping season is facing headwinds, with projections indicating the lowest level of seasonal retail hiring in 16 years. US job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas predicts that retailers will add fewer than 500,000 seasonal positions in the final quarter of 2025, representing an 8% decline year-over-year and the weakest showing since the 2009 recession. This significant drop suggests a potentially softer-than-expected holiday season.
This cautious outlook is driven by a confluence of factors, according to Andy Challenger, Senior Vice President at Challenger, Gray & Christmas. He cites looming tariffs, persistent inflationary pressures, and a growing reliance on automation and permanent staff as contributing to the reduced demand for seasonal workers.
The unusually quiet announcements from major retailers further support this prediction. Unlike previous years, where companies like Target and Macy’s had already publicized their seasonal hiring plans by this time, this year’s silence is telling. Target, for instance, is focusing on increasing hours for existing employees and utilizing its on-demand workforce rather than a large-scale seasonal hiring campaign.
The subdued hiring trend isn’t isolated to the retail sector. The broader job market has experienced a slowdown in recent months, exemplified by August’s weak nonfarm payroll numbers. This sluggishness, combined with concerns over President Trump’s trade policies, has created an atmosphere of economic uncertainty.
Consumers are grappling with persistent inflation, high interest rates, and increased prices resulting from tariffs, which are leading to higher credit card debt and reduced spending power.
Adding to the pessimistic outlook, consulting firms PwC and AlixPartners predict a decline in holiday spending. PwC forecasts a 5% reduction in spending on gifts, travel, and entertainment, while AlixPartners anticipates underwhelming retail sales growth of only 3% to 5%.
These forecasts, along with the dramatically reduced seasonal hiring projections, paint a picture of a challenging holiday season for retailers and potentially indicate broader economic weakness.
