Key Points
- President Trump publicly called on China to quadruple its purchases of U.S. soybeans.
- The demand comes just before a major U.S.-China tariff truce is set to expire.
- Analysts say the request is “highly unlikely” to be met, as China has shifted its buying to Brazil.
- China has not yet purchased any U.S. soybeans for the upcoming harvest season.
President Donald Trump took to social media on Sunday with a big demand for China: quadruple its purchases of U.S. soybeans. In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump said the move would help both countries, addressing China’s soybean shortage while “substantially reducing” its trade deficit with the United States. The demand comes just days before a major tariff truce between the two nations is set to expire on August 12.
The post immediately sent soybean prices jumping, but analysts were quick to pour cold water on the idea, calling it “highly unlikely.” China is the world’s biggest soybean buyer, but it has increasingly turned to Brazil for its supplies.
Last year, less than a quarter of China’s soybean imports came from the U.S. To quadruple its purchases, China would have to make a massive, unprecedented shift in its buying habits, making the U.S. its main supplier.
It’s unclear if Trump’s demand is a condition for extending the tariff truce. However, China’s track record on such promises is shaky. The country fell far short of its agricultural purchase targets under the “Phase One” trade deal signed during Trump’s first term.
In a worrying sign for U.S. farmers, China has yet to buy any American soybeans for the upcoming fourth-quarter harvest season. The country has even been exploring alternative sources, recently purchasing test cargoes of soymeal from Argentina, signaling that it is prepared to go without U.S. soybeans altogether.
