Key Points:
- Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) grew 9.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, surpassing original trade forecasts.
- Electronic exports surged 57.8%, driven by massive AI-related demand for disk media, integrated circuits, and personal computers.
- Underpinned by strong Q1 performance, Enterprise Singapore raised its full-year 2026 export growth forecast to 3%–5%.
- Despite the tech-led boom, non-electronic exports fell by 3.5%, and the agency warned of risks posed by tensions in the Middle East and trade conflicts.
Singapore’s trade-dependent economy is enjoying a major boost as the global artificial intelligence (AI) boom fuels international demand for hardware. According to official data released by Enterprise Singapore on Monday, May 25, 2026, the country’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) expanded 9.6% year-on-year in the first quarter. This stronger-than-expected performance, which follows a robust 12.7% growth rate in the final quarter of 2025, shows that the global tech hardware cycle is gathering massive momentum.
The main engine of this trade expansion was Singapore’s high-tech manufacturing sector. Electronic exports surged 57.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, accelerating rapidly from the 23.4% increase recorded in the previous quarter. Global tech buyers clamored for Singapore-made components to fuel advanced cloud data centers and consumer AI devices. This semiconductor-heavy surge relied on three main segments: disk media products grew 81.6%, integrated circuits expanded 80.6%, and personal computer shipments increased 36.6%. These numbers reflect the massive scope of the global AI hardware market, where corporate capital expenditure on server infrastructure is projected to exceed $150 billion in 2026 alone.
In contrast, the non-electronic export segment experienced a downturn, highlighting a widening gap between the high-flying tech sector and traditional manufacturing. Non-electronic domestic exports fell 3.5% in the first quarter, reversing a solid 9.4% rise in the previous quarter. Several key industrial sectors drove this decline, with food preparations plunging 47.4%, petrochemical exports falling 23.7%, and precision measuring instruments dropping 13.7% compared to the same period last year.
Despite the slump in traditional manufacturing, Singapore’s broader trading activity remained highly robust. Non-oil re-exports, which reflect Singapore’s role as a primary transshipment hub for Asia, climbed 45.4% year-on-year, driven almost entirely by electronic components. Consequently, Singapore’s total merchandise trade expanded 25.6% year-on-year during the quarter, showing a substantial step-up from the 14.5% growth recorded in the preceding quarter. Total services trade also grew, expanding 4.4%.
Based on this stellar first-quarter performance, Enterprise Singapore upgraded its full-year 2026 key exports growth forecast. The agency now expects non-oil domestic exports to expand between 3.0% and 5.0% in 2026, up from its previous, more cautious projection of 2.0% to 4.0%. This upward revision reflects a growing consensus that global capital spending on AI infrastructure will remain highly resilient throughout the second half of the year, providing a reliable buffer for the Southeast Asian financial hub.
The upgraded trade outlook matches a broader recovery in the global economy, which has proved far more resilient in 2026 than many analysts originally anticipated. The World Trade Organization (WTO) recently raised its global merchandise trade volume growth forecast for 2026 to 1.9%, up from its previous estimate of 0.5%. The WTO cited continued strength in AI-related electronics trade and a smaller-than-expected drag from international tariffs as the main drivers. Similarly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its forecast for global trade volume growth to 2.8%.
However, central bankers and trade officials warn that significant downside risks could still derail this export-led recovery. The ongoing war in the Middle East has disrupted major shipping lanes and driven up utility and feedstock costs for regional petrochemical firms. Furthermore, the potential re-escalation of global trade conflicts under the current U.S. administration’s tariff policies continues to cast a shadow over international supply chains. If high-tech tariffs intensify, they could trigger sudden pullbacks in global capital expenditure, directly impacting Singapore’s exports.
For now, local business sentiment remains highly positive. Surveys conducted by Enterprise Singapore show that a strong double-digit net weighted percentage of local manufacturers expect overseas deliveries to improve over the next six months. Specifically, 43% of electronics manufacturers and 49% of precision engineering firms expect business conditions to improve. This optimism pushed the overall manufacturing business sentiment to a net weighted balance of 17%, proving that Singapore’s high-tech industrial base is well-positioned to ride the global artificial intelligence wave.
