Key Points
- Baird expects major announcements from Tesla in 2026 to boost its stock price. The focus will be on the launch of a robotaxi service in China and the EU.
- Updates are also expected on the Optimus robot and Tesla Semi production.
- The firm no longer expects a new, cheaper “Model 2” car from Tesla.
- Baird has a $548 price target on the stock and calls it a “core holding.”
The investment firm Baird is very optimistic about Tesla’s stock as we head into 2026. Analyst Ben Kallo recently told clients that although the year started slowly, Tesla shares are now up 21% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500. He believes several major announcements next year will sustain momentum and sees the stock as a “core holding” for any serious investor.
The biggest news will likely be about the company’s self-driving technology. Baird expects 2026 to be “a year of several announcements regarding robotaxi service.” This could include updates on when and where the service will launch, particularly in key markets such as China and the European Union.
Additionally, recent praise for the latest version of Full Self-Driving (FSD) from Nvidia’s robotics team has heightened excitement.
Beyond the cars, Baird is also watching two other major projects: the Optimus robot and the Tesla Semi truck. The firm expects to get more details on when the Optimus robot will be ready for commercial sale. They also predict that production of the all-electric Tesla Semi will ramp up significantly next year.
However, the analysts did make one major change to their predictions. They no longer expect the company to release a new, lower-cost “Model 2.” They now believe that what they thought was a new car is actually a new version of the existing Model 3 or Model Y. As a result, their current estimates don’t include Tesla producing more than 3 million cars a year anytime soon.
Even without a new model, Baird is sticking to its guns. The firm maintained its $548 price target for the stock. They expect a paid robotaxi service to launch in 2027, with the first Optimus robots sold later that year. For now, they are telling investors to buy the stock and get ready for a big year of news.
